ianstone
06-22-2010, 02:44 PM
There's A Long And Bloody Way Still To Go
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12:21pm UK, Monday June 21, 2010
Tim Marshall, foreign affairs editor
Military people always say the 180th fatality, or the 220th, is no more or less important than the 200th or the 300th.
http://news.sky.com/sky-news/content/StaticFile/jpg/2010/Mar/Week2/15572132.jpg The war in Afghanistan has lasted nearly nine years
They are right, but as the milestones are passed, they are used as a time to focus on the Afghan war, its rights and wrongs, and to ask the questions: "How many more?" and "When do we leave?"
That debate rumbles on permanently in the background.
[URL="http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Afghanistan-Ministry-Of-Defence-Confirms-300th-British-Military-Death/Article/201006315652547?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15652547_Afghanistan%3A_Ministry_Of_De fence_Confirms_300th_British_Military_Death"]Reaching the 300 mark (http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Afghanistan-Tim-Marshall-Looks-At-UKs-Role-In-War-As-300th-Military-Death-Is-Announced/Article/201006315652567?lpos=UK_News_Article_Related_Conte nt_Region_2&lid=ARTICLE_15652567_Afghanistan%3A_Tim_Marshal#co mments) means it will take centre stage again.
There can be no definitive answers yet, but the UK does appear to be sketching the outlines of an exit strategy which should come into play next summer.
In the meantime the death toll will rise again.
Britain committed a small force to Afghanistan in 2002.
The real fighting only began in 2006 after reinforcements entered Helmand with a remit to provide security while investment resulted in improving stability and living conditions.
The then UK Defence Secretary, John Reid, even hoped that no shots would have to be fired.
It seemed to many a naive hope, the British were going to the Taliban stronghold, there was no way the deployment would not be opposed.
Before 2006, the first fatality was in 2002 with more following, interspersed by weeks without serious incident.
http://news.sky.com/sky-news/content/StaticFile/jpg/2010/Jun/Week2/15647450.jpg Prime Minister David Cameron has travelled to Afghanistan to meet troops
But the toll increased rapidly after the Spring 2006 Helmand deployment, reaching 100 in June 2008.
The 200th fatality was 13 months later - in August 2009.
The 300 milestone has come 10-months after that - in June 2010.
Over 70% of the deaths have come from Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs).
The Government has committed more money to counter the threat which will pay for more sniffer dogs, more trained men and women and more armoured vehicles.
It will take time to get all this into "theatre" and in the meantime we can expect the annual spike in fatalities and casualties.
The future now seems to hinge on two things.
The first is the result of the American surge; 20,000 extra troops have arrived, another 10,000 are on the way.
The second is the ability of the ever increasing Afghan National Army (ANA) to shoulder the burden of the fighting if the surge is successful.
http://news.sky.com/sky-news/content/StaticFile/jpg/2009/Nov/Week2/15449565.jpg (http://news.sky.com/skynews/Interactive-Graphics/fallenheroes)
If it is, and if the ANA proves itself capable, then President Obama can argue that the policy allows him to begin to reduce US troop numbers with the British following.
Those remaining could spend more time in the larger bases, leaving the ANA to do most of the patrolling in the dangerous territory in Helmand thus reducing British fatalities.
That's a sketch of the plan. There are other scenarios. For example, what if the surge fails?
Then Mr Obama would have the choice of either staying and taking the ever increasing fatalities as he heads for the Presidential election in 2012, or running for the exit arguing that he gave his generals everything they wanted, they failed, so it is time to go.
Another scenario is that the surge looks as if it has worked, the NATO troops dramatically reduce in number, but the ANA fails to fill the vacuum, and the Taliban, having waited NATO out, comes back ever stronger.
There's a long and bloody way still to go.
Which ever way you cut it in all honesty
There's A Long And Bloody Way Still To Go
The armed forces soldier on, you have to admire them
[/URL]
12:21pm UK, Monday June 21, 2010
Tim Marshall, foreign affairs editor
Military people always say the 180th fatality, or the 220th, is no more or less important than the 200th or the 300th.
http://news.sky.com/sky-news/content/StaticFile/jpg/2010/Mar/Week2/15572132.jpg The war in Afghanistan has lasted nearly nine years
They are right, but as the milestones are passed, they are used as a time to focus on the Afghan war, its rights and wrongs, and to ask the questions: "How many more?" and "When do we leave?"
That debate rumbles on permanently in the background.
[URL="http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/Politics/Afghanistan-Ministry-Of-Defence-Confirms-300th-British-Military-Death/Article/201006315652547?lpos=Politics_Carousel_Region_0&lid=ARTICLE_15652547_Afghanistan%3A_Ministry_Of_De fence_Confirms_300th_British_Military_Death"]Reaching the 300 mark (http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/UK-News/Afghanistan-Tim-Marshall-Looks-At-UKs-Role-In-War-As-300th-Military-Death-Is-Announced/Article/201006315652567?lpos=UK_News_Article_Related_Conte nt_Region_2&lid=ARTICLE_15652567_Afghanistan%3A_Tim_Marshal#co mments) means it will take centre stage again.
There can be no definitive answers yet, but the UK does appear to be sketching the outlines of an exit strategy which should come into play next summer.
In the meantime the death toll will rise again.
Britain committed a small force to Afghanistan in 2002.
The real fighting only began in 2006 after reinforcements entered Helmand with a remit to provide security while investment resulted in improving stability and living conditions.
The then UK Defence Secretary, John Reid, even hoped that no shots would have to be fired.
It seemed to many a naive hope, the British were going to the Taliban stronghold, there was no way the deployment would not be opposed.
Before 2006, the first fatality was in 2002 with more following, interspersed by weeks without serious incident.
http://news.sky.com/sky-news/content/StaticFile/jpg/2010/Jun/Week2/15647450.jpg Prime Minister David Cameron has travelled to Afghanistan to meet troops
But the toll increased rapidly after the Spring 2006 Helmand deployment, reaching 100 in June 2008.
The 200th fatality was 13 months later - in August 2009.
The 300 milestone has come 10-months after that - in June 2010.
Over 70% of the deaths have come from Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs).
The Government has committed more money to counter the threat which will pay for more sniffer dogs, more trained men and women and more armoured vehicles.
It will take time to get all this into "theatre" and in the meantime we can expect the annual spike in fatalities and casualties.
The future now seems to hinge on two things.
The first is the result of the American surge; 20,000 extra troops have arrived, another 10,000 are on the way.
The second is the ability of the ever increasing Afghan National Army (ANA) to shoulder the burden of the fighting if the surge is successful.
http://news.sky.com/sky-news/content/StaticFile/jpg/2009/Nov/Week2/15449565.jpg (http://news.sky.com/skynews/Interactive-Graphics/fallenheroes)
If it is, and if the ANA proves itself capable, then President Obama can argue that the policy allows him to begin to reduce US troop numbers with the British following.
Those remaining could spend more time in the larger bases, leaving the ANA to do most of the patrolling in the dangerous territory in Helmand thus reducing British fatalities.
That's a sketch of the plan. There are other scenarios. For example, what if the surge fails?
Then Mr Obama would have the choice of either staying and taking the ever increasing fatalities as he heads for the Presidential election in 2012, or running for the exit arguing that he gave his generals everything they wanted, they failed, so it is time to go.
Another scenario is that the surge looks as if it has worked, the NATO troops dramatically reduce in number, but the ANA fails to fill the vacuum, and the Taliban, having waited NATO out, comes back ever stronger.
There's a long and bloody way still to go.
Which ever way you cut it in all honesty
There's A Long And Bloody Way Still To Go
The armed forces soldier on, you have to admire them