ianstone
06-19-2010, 12:46 PM
'Alarming' rise in Afghan violence, says UN
Page last updated at 11:00 GMT, Saturday, 19 June 2010 12:00 UK
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/48117000/jpg/_48117741_003657838-1.jpg The rise in violence comes amid a US troop surge and a major Nato offensive Violence in Afghanistan increased dramatically in the first four months of this year, the UN says.
In a quarterly report to the UN Security Council, it said roadside bomb attacks rose by 94%, compared with the same period in 2009.
On average, the report said, there were three suicide bombings a week, half of them in the country's volatile south.
The findings come amid a major Nato-led operation in Helmand and a surge of US reinforcements.
US President Barack Obama ordered 30,000 extra troops to Afghanistan in December.
Assassinations rise And Nato launched Operation Moshtarak in Helmand province in February, its biggest military offensive since the Taliban were ousted in 2001.
Continue reading the main story (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia_pacific/10356741.stm#skip_feature_02)
The alarming trend of increased improvised explosive device incidents and complex suicide attacks persisted
UN Secretary General's report Peace or more war? (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/10254387.stm)
The report noted the rise in violence was "attributable to an increase in military operations in the southern region during the first quarter of 2010".
It also said Afghanistan's overall security situation "has not improved" since the UN's last report in March.
Despite all this, the electoral commission had successfully registered more than 2,500 political candidates - including 400 women - for polls due in September, the report said.
It also noted that both the Afghan police and army were slightly ahead of interim targets for beefing up their ranks.
But assassinations had risen 45%, with the Taliban and others increasingly successful at killing Afghan officials, the report said.
It added that sophisticated suicide bombings had doubled from last year to roughly two per month.
"The shift to more complex suicide attacks demonstrates a growing capability of the local terrorist networks linked to al-Qaeda," the report said.
It also noted: "The alarming trend of increased improvised explosive device incidents and the occurrence of complex suicide attacks persisted."
'Tough fighting' UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon submitted the report to the Security Council this week.
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/48117000/jpg/_48117544_009470999-1.jpg Coalition-caused civilian casualty numbers are down, says a US general Nato spokesman Brig Gen Josef Blotz told reporters in the Afghan capital Kabul on Saturday: "Tough fighting is expected to continue, but the situation is trending in our favour as more forces flow into the area."
"It has to be tougher, perhaps, before it goes easier," he added, reports the Associated Press news agency.
Gen Blotz also said there had been 44.4% fewer civilian casualties in the last three months, compared with the same period in 2009, due to more stringent rules of engagement.
Operation Moshtarak, involving 15,000 troops in the Marjah area of Helmand, has been hailed by Afghan and Nato officials as a success.
But there have been reports of ongoing violence, Taliban intimidation and a lacklustre performance from Afghan police and civilian administrators, say correspondents.
Nato-led forces are meanwhile poised to launch a long-planned offensive in the southern city of Kandahar, a stronghold of the Taliban.
According to a tally kept by the independent iCasualties website, more than 1,120 US soldiers and almost 300 British soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan since 2001.
President Obama's strategy envisages foreign troop numbers in the country peaking at 150,000 by August, before a US drawdown in 2011
Viewpoint: Measuring success in Afghanistan
#top_ie_fix { display:block; width:786px;}#top_ie_fix p { font-size: 1.3em; font-weight: bold; margin-bottom: 1em; line-height: 1.4;}As the biggest anti-Taliban offensive in Afghanistan since 2001 continues, the challenge of how to hold on to and rebuild areas previously held by insurgents remains.
Fotini Christia, a political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who has recently spent time in Afghanistan, sets out the latest ideas on how to measure the success of such operations.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/world/10/measuring_success_afganistan/img/msa.gif
Artwork by Thalia Chantziara who accompanied Fotini Christia in Afghanistan
The number of dead Taliban fighters or a decline in poppy production used to be typical ways of gauging the success of an operation.
But these can be misleading when trying to measure the long-term success of a military offensive and the rebuilding that follows.
Militants readily label their dead as civilian casualties and a decrease in poppy production gives no sense of what has replaced opium or whether the cultivation has simply moved on elsewhere.
Now that Nato commander Gen Stanley McChrystal has shifted the focus in Afghanistan from defeating insurgents to protecting civilians, new benchmarks will have to be created. These will form an important test of his new counter-insurgency strategy.
District officials living in the district
Several local government officials have been unable to live in their assigned districts because of security concerns. If they were able to do so it would indicate increased security.
In Nad Ali, one Helmand district where the current coalition offensive is taking place, there are 60 government officials but most of them are not in the district, according to a spokesman for Helmand's governor.
Across Helmand there are 980 government officials, but not all of these are able to live in their post. But a new centrally run initiative has selected Nad Ali as a district in which to prioritise recruitment, promising much higher salaries to new district officials here.
Cost of transporting goods
The cost of transporting goods is increased by violence and the chances of being attacked on the roads. If transport costs on a route were to fall it would be a positive sign.
In 2007 Afghanistan's lorry drivers' union estimated that each vehicle pays more than $6,500 (£4,216) annually in taxes and bribes extorted on Afghanistan's roads.
Such costs are an important measure of the security situation.
Number of stores open
Legal market activity is a sign that the situation is returning to normal and stores opening in local bazaars show that there is increasing confidence in security and the local economy.
Reports of explosive devices
If the proportion of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) accurately reported to the authorities by the local population were to rise it would suggest a decline in support for the insurgents.
Local officials in Marjah and Nad Ali say it is difficult for residents to report the location of IEDs. But Helmand's governor says that meetings with tribal elders have been fruitful over the issue of sharing information.
Children going to school
Functioning schools are a sign of effective government and parents sending their children to school suggests confidence in the government and in the security of the local area.
There are 95 schools closed out of 235 in total in Helmand, the local education authority says. In districts such as Nad Ali and Deshi, school attendance is particularly difficult owing to the security situation.
Helmand's literacy rate was put at just 5% in 2007 by the ministry of rural rehabilitation and development.
Page last updated at 11:00 GMT, Saturday, 19 June 2010 12:00 UK
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/48117000/jpg/_48117741_003657838-1.jpg The rise in violence comes amid a US troop surge and a major Nato offensive Violence in Afghanistan increased dramatically in the first four months of this year, the UN says.
In a quarterly report to the UN Security Council, it said roadside bomb attacks rose by 94%, compared with the same period in 2009.
On average, the report said, there were three suicide bombings a week, half of them in the country's volatile south.
The findings come amid a major Nato-led operation in Helmand and a surge of US reinforcements.
US President Barack Obama ordered 30,000 extra troops to Afghanistan in December.
Assassinations rise And Nato launched Operation Moshtarak in Helmand province in February, its biggest military offensive since the Taliban were ousted in 2001.
Continue reading the main story (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia_pacific/10356741.stm#skip_feature_02)
The alarming trend of increased improvised explosive device incidents and complex suicide attacks persisted
UN Secretary General's report Peace or more war? (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/10254387.stm)
The report noted the rise in violence was "attributable to an increase in military operations in the southern region during the first quarter of 2010".
It also said Afghanistan's overall security situation "has not improved" since the UN's last report in March.
Despite all this, the electoral commission had successfully registered more than 2,500 political candidates - including 400 women - for polls due in September, the report said.
It also noted that both the Afghan police and army were slightly ahead of interim targets for beefing up their ranks.
But assassinations had risen 45%, with the Taliban and others increasingly successful at killing Afghan officials, the report said.
It added that sophisticated suicide bombings had doubled from last year to roughly two per month.
"The shift to more complex suicide attacks demonstrates a growing capability of the local terrorist networks linked to al-Qaeda," the report said.
It also noted: "The alarming trend of increased improvised explosive device incidents and the occurrence of complex suicide attacks persisted."
'Tough fighting' UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon submitted the report to the Security Council this week.
http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/48117000/jpg/_48117544_009470999-1.jpg Coalition-caused civilian casualty numbers are down, says a US general Nato spokesman Brig Gen Josef Blotz told reporters in the Afghan capital Kabul on Saturday: "Tough fighting is expected to continue, but the situation is trending in our favour as more forces flow into the area."
"It has to be tougher, perhaps, before it goes easier," he added, reports the Associated Press news agency.
Gen Blotz also said there had been 44.4% fewer civilian casualties in the last three months, compared with the same period in 2009, due to more stringent rules of engagement.
Operation Moshtarak, involving 15,000 troops in the Marjah area of Helmand, has been hailed by Afghan and Nato officials as a success.
But there have been reports of ongoing violence, Taliban intimidation and a lacklustre performance from Afghan police and civilian administrators, say correspondents.
Nato-led forces are meanwhile poised to launch a long-planned offensive in the southern city of Kandahar, a stronghold of the Taliban.
According to a tally kept by the independent iCasualties website, more than 1,120 US soldiers and almost 300 British soldiers have been killed in Afghanistan since 2001.
President Obama's strategy envisages foreign troop numbers in the country peaking at 150,000 by August, before a US drawdown in 2011
Viewpoint: Measuring success in Afghanistan
#top_ie_fix { display:block; width:786px;}#top_ie_fix p { font-size: 1.3em; font-weight: bold; margin-bottom: 1em; line-height: 1.4;}As the biggest anti-Taliban offensive in Afghanistan since 2001 continues, the challenge of how to hold on to and rebuild areas previously held by insurgents remains.
Fotini Christia, a political scientist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, who has recently spent time in Afghanistan, sets out the latest ideas on how to measure the success of such operations.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/spl/hi/world/10/measuring_success_afganistan/img/msa.gif
Artwork by Thalia Chantziara who accompanied Fotini Christia in Afghanistan
The number of dead Taliban fighters or a decline in poppy production used to be typical ways of gauging the success of an operation.
But these can be misleading when trying to measure the long-term success of a military offensive and the rebuilding that follows.
Militants readily label their dead as civilian casualties and a decrease in poppy production gives no sense of what has replaced opium or whether the cultivation has simply moved on elsewhere.
Now that Nato commander Gen Stanley McChrystal has shifted the focus in Afghanistan from defeating insurgents to protecting civilians, new benchmarks will have to be created. These will form an important test of his new counter-insurgency strategy.
District officials living in the district
Several local government officials have been unable to live in their assigned districts because of security concerns. If they were able to do so it would indicate increased security.
In Nad Ali, one Helmand district where the current coalition offensive is taking place, there are 60 government officials but most of them are not in the district, according to a spokesman for Helmand's governor.
Across Helmand there are 980 government officials, but not all of these are able to live in their post. But a new centrally run initiative has selected Nad Ali as a district in which to prioritise recruitment, promising much higher salaries to new district officials here.
Cost of transporting goods
The cost of transporting goods is increased by violence and the chances of being attacked on the roads. If transport costs on a route were to fall it would be a positive sign.
In 2007 Afghanistan's lorry drivers' union estimated that each vehicle pays more than $6,500 (£4,216) annually in taxes and bribes extorted on Afghanistan's roads.
Such costs are an important measure of the security situation.
Number of stores open
Legal market activity is a sign that the situation is returning to normal and stores opening in local bazaars show that there is increasing confidence in security and the local economy.
Reports of explosive devices
If the proportion of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) accurately reported to the authorities by the local population were to rise it would suggest a decline in support for the insurgents.
Local officials in Marjah and Nad Ali say it is difficult for residents to report the location of IEDs. But Helmand's governor says that meetings with tribal elders have been fruitful over the issue of sharing information.
Children going to school
Functioning schools are a sign of effective government and parents sending their children to school suggests confidence in the government and in the security of the local area.
There are 95 schools closed out of 235 in total in Helmand, the local education authority says. In districts such as Nad Ali and Deshi, school attendance is particularly difficult owing to the security situation.
Helmand's literacy rate was put at just 5% in 2007 by the ministry of rural rehabilitation and development.