bobdina
11-06-2009, 04:38 PM
Obama's Unrealistic Afghan Assumptions
Before the surge, Iraq's Maliki also wasn't considered credible.
By ELISE JORDAN
'The proof is not going to be in words, it's going to be in deeds." That is how the White House summed up what Barack Obama told Afghan President Hamid Karzai after a runoff election was called off recently, handing the Afghan leader a new term in office.
That's an interesting marker and one Mr. Obama would do well to heed himself. The surest path to better governance in Afghanistan is a U.S. military strategy that gives Mr. Karzai's government a little breathing room. Instead, Mr. Obama's words and deeds have revealed a profound misunderstanding of both our Afghan partners and the on-the-ground realities of holding elections in a war zone. They have also undermined Mr. Karzai and led allies to wonder if the U.S. was willing to stand by Afghanistan in its war against radical extremists.
In a speech in March detailing his thinking on Afghanistan, Mr. Obama mentioned democracy only in reference to Pakistan and never spoke of victory in Afghanistan.
Soon after the speech, senior administration officials were talking about the need to find a "credible partner" in Afghanistan. The implication—that Mr. Karzai was not a credible partner—was damaging, especially because Mr. Karzai eventually won another five-year term. The U.S. questioning the legitimacy of Afghanistan's fledgling democracy does as much to weaken that democracy as any instance of corruption.
In the end, much of what the Obama administration has complained about is based on unrealistic assumptions. Some degree of electoral fraud is pretty much the norm in underdeveloped countries.
Then there's the problem of defining what a credible actor is. The fantasy is always that a local George Washington can be swept into office. But there aren't many pro-Western, liberal champions of democracy who are willing to fight a war.
We saw this in Korea, Vietnam and, most recently, in Iraq. We forget it now, but Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was not considered a credible actor until after the surge. Three years ago, many in Washington were lamenting that what Iraq needed was a Hamid Karzai and that Iranian exile Mr. Maliki was too close to Shiite extremists to be credible. Mr. Maliki may lose his bid for re-election in January because he is seen as too progressive by the Shiite alliance.
We forget that regardless of some problems, there was a lot that was inspiring about Afghanistan's presidential elections. Yes, there was widespread corruption at the polls, and Mr. Karzai abused state-operated television for campaign promotion. But there were substantive debates among candidates that sparked political discussions among Afghans. Campaign posters also blanketed Kabul. This is progress.
Candidates Ramazan Bashardost and Ashraf Ghani focused their campaigns on issues that matter to Afghans. Another candidate, Abdullah Abdullah, mobilized grass-roots support for his campaign, establishing him as a political force in the country. At one point he held a rally that drew thousands to the stadium the Taliban once used to execute people.
Perhaps we will be surprised to see that Mr. Karzai enjoys enough support to govern. Mr. Abdullah's decision to bow out of the runoff election and not call for continued protests gave Mr. Karzai a clear path to a new term. That demonstrated that Afghans are capable of finding solutions to their political problems. Wouldn't it be nice if they could see in the U.S. a credible actor with a credible military policy?
It is Mr. Obama who must now prove himself through deeds, not words. A military strategy that would reinforce the message that the U.S. will not abandon Afghans would do a lot of good. A renewed commitment from Mr. Obama would bolster U.S. efforts on the ground in Afghanistan and help our credibility in Pakistan.
How has Mr. Obama demonstrated that Afghanistan is the necessary war he once said it was? Let's hope he shows us, not tells us, his conviction.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704013004574517323667596310.html
Before the surge, Iraq's Maliki also wasn't considered credible.
By ELISE JORDAN
'The proof is not going to be in words, it's going to be in deeds." That is how the White House summed up what Barack Obama told Afghan President Hamid Karzai after a runoff election was called off recently, handing the Afghan leader a new term in office.
That's an interesting marker and one Mr. Obama would do well to heed himself. The surest path to better governance in Afghanistan is a U.S. military strategy that gives Mr. Karzai's government a little breathing room. Instead, Mr. Obama's words and deeds have revealed a profound misunderstanding of both our Afghan partners and the on-the-ground realities of holding elections in a war zone. They have also undermined Mr. Karzai and led allies to wonder if the U.S. was willing to stand by Afghanistan in its war against radical extremists.
In a speech in March detailing his thinking on Afghanistan, Mr. Obama mentioned democracy only in reference to Pakistan and never spoke of victory in Afghanistan.
Soon after the speech, senior administration officials were talking about the need to find a "credible partner" in Afghanistan. The implication—that Mr. Karzai was not a credible partner—was damaging, especially because Mr. Karzai eventually won another five-year term. The U.S. questioning the legitimacy of Afghanistan's fledgling democracy does as much to weaken that democracy as any instance of corruption.
In the end, much of what the Obama administration has complained about is based on unrealistic assumptions. Some degree of electoral fraud is pretty much the norm in underdeveloped countries.
Then there's the problem of defining what a credible actor is. The fantasy is always that a local George Washington can be swept into office. But there aren't many pro-Western, liberal champions of democracy who are willing to fight a war.
We saw this in Korea, Vietnam and, most recently, in Iraq. We forget it now, but Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was not considered a credible actor until after the surge. Three years ago, many in Washington were lamenting that what Iraq needed was a Hamid Karzai and that Iranian exile Mr. Maliki was too close to Shiite extremists to be credible. Mr. Maliki may lose his bid for re-election in January because he is seen as too progressive by the Shiite alliance.
We forget that regardless of some problems, there was a lot that was inspiring about Afghanistan's presidential elections. Yes, there was widespread corruption at the polls, and Mr. Karzai abused state-operated television for campaign promotion. But there were substantive debates among candidates that sparked political discussions among Afghans. Campaign posters also blanketed Kabul. This is progress.
Candidates Ramazan Bashardost and Ashraf Ghani focused their campaigns on issues that matter to Afghans. Another candidate, Abdullah Abdullah, mobilized grass-roots support for his campaign, establishing him as a political force in the country. At one point he held a rally that drew thousands to the stadium the Taliban once used to execute people.
Perhaps we will be surprised to see that Mr. Karzai enjoys enough support to govern. Mr. Abdullah's decision to bow out of the runoff election and not call for continued protests gave Mr. Karzai a clear path to a new term. That demonstrated that Afghans are capable of finding solutions to their political problems. Wouldn't it be nice if they could see in the U.S. a credible actor with a credible military policy?
It is Mr. Obama who must now prove himself through deeds, not words. A military strategy that would reinforce the message that the U.S. will not abandon Afghans would do a lot of good. A renewed commitment from Mr. Obama would bolster U.S. efforts on the ground in Afghanistan and help our credibility in Pakistan.
How has Mr. Obama demonstrated that Afghanistan is the necessary war he once said it was? Let's hope he shows us, not tells us, his conviction.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704013004574517323667596310.html