bobdina
05-25-2009, 05:27 PM
Fewer fighters
Reshaping plan calls for cutting 249 jets, reassigning 4,000 airmen
By Sam LaGrone
slagrone@militarytimes.com
The Air Force is molding its combat forces into what Secretary Michael Donley describes as “a smaller, more flexible and lethal bridge” to the F-35 Lightning II by slashing 10 percent of its legacy fighters and reassigning the 4,000 airmen attached to the aging jets.
It’s a plan that Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz sees as giving the Air Force back its edge over “potential adversaries,” which he doesn’t name; it’s a plan that analysts and lawmakers consider a risky bet at best.
Oct. 1, the start of fiscal 2010, is when the jets start heading to the boneyard. The word on squadrons to be eliminated — at least five and as many as 10 — should come later this month, according to personnel officials.
Of the service’s 2,360 fighters, 249 will be retired — 134 F-16s, 112 F-15s and three A-10s. The jets are based in 13 states and three countries. The bases with the greatest number of aircraft being retired are Elmendorf, Alaska; Hill, Utah; Langley, Va.; Luke, Ariz.; and Tyndall, Fla.
The $3.5 billion saved over the next five years in operating and maintenance costs will be spent on unmanned vehicles, intelligence analysis and bomber and fighter modifications.
Air Force Times learned the details from an unclassified briefing to Congress dated May 15. The Air Force posted a story about the restructuring on its Web site May 20.
The plan surfaced six weeks after Defense Secretary Robert Gates laid out his budget recommendations for reporters, including the decommissioning of the fighters and the acceleration of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. The stealth-capable jet, known as a fifth-generation fight er, is designed for close-air support, air defense and tactical bombing missions.
“Air Force analysis shows that without sufficient fifth-generation fighters, campaigns take longer and attrition is higher,” the briefing states.
The U.S. plans to buy 513 F-35s by 2014 and 2,443 by the end of the program in 2034. More than 1,700 of those are scheduled to go to the Air Force. Right now, the Air Force has three F-35s and the Marine Corps has one. All are in testing.
“By accepting some short-term risk, we can convert our inventory of legacy fighters and F-22 into a smaller, more flexible and lethal bridge to fifth-generation fighters like the F-35,” Air Force Secretary Michael Donley said in a state*ment.
Skepticism on Capitol Hill
Despite the savings and Schwartz’s argument for a more formidable fighter force, some in Congress who have seen the briefing believe the Air Force shouldn’t put all its eggs in the JSF basket.
“We’re putting an awful lot of faith in the program delivering on time that hasn’t accrued a lot of reason to give it to date,” Rep. John McHugh, R-N.Y., ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee, said at a May 19 hearing attended by Schwartz and Donley.
Schwartz told the committee that the restructuring would “free up resources, take some risk, admittedly, in order to position ourselves to get on that manageable ramp for F-35 so that we, again, can manage fleet age, get F-35 into the fleet before the F-16s begin to [retire] in large numbers.” A contingent led by Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., and Rep. Frank LoBiondo, R-N.J., is pushing for the service to purchase F-15s or F-16s to ease the transition into the F-35 program. The congressional members haven’t put forth the number of legacy fighters they want to see.
LoBiondo addressed specifically the massive retirements of Air National Guard aircraft by 2020. The Guard’s aging F-15s and F-16s have patrolled the skies over and around cities since the 2001 terrorist attacks. Decommissioning the 495 F-16s is scheduled to start in two years, when the oldest ones turn 30, and wrap up by 2026.
“We’ve heard repeatedly, ‘Everything will be fine, we just need some more time,’ ” LoBiondo said at the hearing. “Well, I'm not feeling so good about that answer, don’t feel as good today as I did last week, and each day that goes by, I think we have a problem.” The Air Force’s 2010 budget in­cludes no money for new F-15s or F-16s, although the Government Accountability Office warns that buying only F-35s will probably create a fighter gap.
“Procuring large numbers of production jets while still working to deliver test jets and mature manufacturing processes does not seem prudent, and looming plans to accelerate procurement will be difficult,” said a report by the GAO released in March.
In another report released May 20, the GAO estimated F-35 de­velopment could face cost over­runs of $2.4 billion to $7.4 billion and additional testing could be de­layed by one to three years.
The day before the report’s re­lease, at the hearing, Donley told lawmakers that keeping the F-35 on time and on budget would be a challenge.
Committee Chairman Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., wasn’t shy about letting Schwartz and Donley know that he doesn’t like cutting the fighters to pay for other Air Force needs.
“That seems to be a serious bal­ancing act,” he said.
Defense analyst Philip Coyle, though, guesses the Air Force doesn’t have much choice but to follow Gates’ lead on the F-35 — and risk lost fighter capability in the acceleration process.
“Secretary Gates has them scared to death, doesn’t he?” Coyle, with the Center for Defense Information, asked rhetorically.
More use of unmanned
Gates has pointed out on several occasions that the military must focus on the current conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan; the Air Force’s budget reflects his thinking. He ordered the Air Force to use $2 billion of its $160.5 billion budget to increase the number of MQ­9 Reaper and MQ-1 Predator orbits it flies over Iraq and Afghanistan from 33 today to 50 by 2011. In past years, the Air Force has used sup­plemental funds for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to ramp up the number of UAV orbits it flies.
The switch is clearly in line with Gates’ belief that defense costs have gotten out of control, particu­larly those racked up by the Air Force. Gates killed three of the service’s top programs — a new combat search-and-rescue heli­copter, the F-22 Raptor and the transformational satellite.
A former commander of Air Com­bat Command, retired Gen. Richard E. Hawley, criticized Gates for putting too much empha­sis on irregular warfare. The root of the tactical air cuts come from an assumption that the U.S. won’t face a peer adversary in 30 years.
“I’m getting a little older and I remember a lot of people who tried to predict future of conflict and they have always gotten it wrong,” Hawley said. “Once they see we’re disarming ourselves in the conventional arena, someone is going to fill the void.” Another defense analyst, Mackenzie Eaglen with The Her­itage Foundation, blames the Air Force for its own predicament.
“The Air Force has painted itself into a corner by broadcasting every decision as budget driven,” Eaglen said.
“I think Congress should be very skeptical when the department said, ‘Trust us. We analyzed it, this is the answer.’
Reshaping plan calls for cutting 249 jets, reassigning 4,000 airmen
By Sam LaGrone
slagrone@militarytimes.com
The Air Force is molding its combat forces into what Secretary Michael Donley describes as “a smaller, more flexible and lethal bridge” to the F-35 Lightning II by slashing 10 percent of its legacy fighters and reassigning the 4,000 airmen attached to the aging jets.
It’s a plan that Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz sees as giving the Air Force back its edge over “potential adversaries,” which he doesn’t name; it’s a plan that analysts and lawmakers consider a risky bet at best.
Oct. 1, the start of fiscal 2010, is when the jets start heading to the boneyard. The word on squadrons to be eliminated — at least five and as many as 10 — should come later this month, according to personnel officials.
Of the service’s 2,360 fighters, 249 will be retired — 134 F-16s, 112 F-15s and three A-10s. The jets are based in 13 states and three countries. The bases with the greatest number of aircraft being retired are Elmendorf, Alaska; Hill, Utah; Langley, Va.; Luke, Ariz.; and Tyndall, Fla.
The $3.5 billion saved over the next five years in operating and maintenance costs will be spent on unmanned vehicles, intelligence analysis and bomber and fighter modifications.
Air Force Times learned the details from an unclassified briefing to Congress dated May 15. The Air Force posted a story about the restructuring on its Web site May 20.
The plan surfaced six weeks after Defense Secretary Robert Gates laid out his budget recommendations for reporters, including the decommissioning of the fighters and the acceleration of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program. The stealth-capable jet, known as a fifth-generation fight er, is designed for close-air support, air defense and tactical bombing missions.
“Air Force analysis shows that without sufficient fifth-generation fighters, campaigns take longer and attrition is higher,” the briefing states.
The U.S. plans to buy 513 F-35s by 2014 and 2,443 by the end of the program in 2034. More than 1,700 of those are scheduled to go to the Air Force. Right now, the Air Force has three F-35s and the Marine Corps has one. All are in testing.
“By accepting some short-term risk, we can convert our inventory of legacy fighters and F-22 into a smaller, more flexible and lethal bridge to fifth-generation fighters like the F-35,” Air Force Secretary Michael Donley said in a state*ment.
Skepticism on Capitol Hill
Despite the savings and Schwartz’s argument for a more formidable fighter force, some in Congress who have seen the briefing believe the Air Force shouldn’t put all its eggs in the JSF basket.
“We’re putting an awful lot of faith in the program delivering on time that hasn’t accrued a lot of reason to give it to date,” Rep. John McHugh, R-N.Y., ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee, said at a May 19 hearing attended by Schwartz and Donley.
Schwartz told the committee that the restructuring would “free up resources, take some risk, admittedly, in order to position ourselves to get on that manageable ramp for F-35 so that we, again, can manage fleet age, get F-35 into the fleet before the F-16s begin to [retire] in large numbers.” A contingent led by Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., and Rep. Frank LoBiondo, R-N.J., is pushing for the service to purchase F-15s or F-16s to ease the transition into the F-35 program. The congressional members haven’t put forth the number of legacy fighters they want to see.
LoBiondo addressed specifically the massive retirements of Air National Guard aircraft by 2020. The Guard’s aging F-15s and F-16s have patrolled the skies over and around cities since the 2001 terrorist attacks. Decommissioning the 495 F-16s is scheduled to start in two years, when the oldest ones turn 30, and wrap up by 2026.
“We’ve heard repeatedly, ‘Everything will be fine, we just need some more time,’ ” LoBiondo said at the hearing. “Well, I'm not feeling so good about that answer, don’t feel as good today as I did last week, and each day that goes by, I think we have a problem.” The Air Force’s 2010 budget in­cludes no money for new F-15s or F-16s, although the Government Accountability Office warns that buying only F-35s will probably create a fighter gap.
“Procuring large numbers of production jets while still working to deliver test jets and mature manufacturing processes does not seem prudent, and looming plans to accelerate procurement will be difficult,” said a report by the GAO released in March.
In another report released May 20, the GAO estimated F-35 de­velopment could face cost over­runs of $2.4 billion to $7.4 billion and additional testing could be de­layed by one to three years.
The day before the report’s re­lease, at the hearing, Donley told lawmakers that keeping the F-35 on time and on budget would be a challenge.
Committee Chairman Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., wasn’t shy about letting Schwartz and Donley know that he doesn’t like cutting the fighters to pay for other Air Force needs.
“That seems to be a serious bal­ancing act,” he said.
Defense analyst Philip Coyle, though, guesses the Air Force doesn’t have much choice but to follow Gates’ lead on the F-35 — and risk lost fighter capability in the acceleration process.
“Secretary Gates has them scared to death, doesn’t he?” Coyle, with the Center for Defense Information, asked rhetorically.
More use of unmanned
Gates has pointed out on several occasions that the military must focus on the current conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan; the Air Force’s budget reflects his thinking. He ordered the Air Force to use $2 billion of its $160.5 billion budget to increase the number of MQ­9 Reaper and MQ-1 Predator orbits it flies over Iraq and Afghanistan from 33 today to 50 by 2011. In past years, the Air Force has used sup­plemental funds for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to ramp up the number of UAV orbits it flies.
The switch is clearly in line with Gates’ belief that defense costs have gotten out of control, particu­larly those racked up by the Air Force. Gates killed three of the service’s top programs — a new combat search-and-rescue heli­copter, the F-22 Raptor and the transformational satellite.
A former commander of Air Com­bat Command, retired Gen. Richard E. Hawley, criticized Gates for putting too much empha­sis on irregular warfare. The root of the tactical air cuts come from an assumption that the U.S. won’t face a peer adversary in 30 years.
“I’m getting a little older and I remember a lot of people who tried to predict future of conflict and they have always gotten it wrong,” Hawley said. “Once they see we’re disarming ourselves in the conventional arena, someone is going to fill the void.” Another defense analyst, Mackenzie Eaglen with The Her­itage Foundation, blames the Air Force for its own predicament.
“The Air Force has painted itself into a corner by broadcasting every decision as budget driven,” Eaglen said.
“I think Congress should be very skeptical when the department said, ‘Trust us. We analyzed it, this is the answer.’