Scott
05-16-2009, 04:30 PM
The Pakistan army presses ahead with its offensive against the Taliban in the Swat Valley. ITN's Julian Manyon reports.
• Pakistanis get brief window to flee fighting
• Analyst: 'Bloody urban battle' looms between Taliban, Pakistan
NEW: Taliban "digging trenches, laying mines" in disputed western city, expert says
NEW: Pakistan wants to push Taliban south so it can encircle militan More..ts, expert says
U.N.: World must launch "massive effort" to care for Pakistani refugees
Some 1.5 million people have been displaced by 10 months of fighting
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) -- The Taliban are digging in for a "bloody urban battle" against the Pakistani army in a hotly disputed city in the western part of the country, a strategic expert warned Thursday.
A Pakistani army spokesman says the military offensive has caused many to leave their homes for camps.
"The Taliban are concentrating forces in Mingora -- digging trenches, laying mines, taking positions on rooftops," said Reva Bhalla, the director of strategic analysis at Stratfor, a private firm that describes itself as a global intelligence company.
"It is not clear if the Pakistani military is trained and even equipped to go into a situation like that," she said, adding that even the United States military "would have to think twice" about such an offensive.
She estimates there are 5,000 Taliban fighters in the area.
"The question is: Are they going to try to stand and fight, or try to regroup?" she asked.
With a government offensive against the Taliban nearly three weeks old, a spokesman for Pakistan's army said the military intends to drive the Taliban out of the contested area.
"The whole resolve of the government and the military is to once and for all finish the Taliban from the Valley of Swat," Pakistani military spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas told CNN's Reza Sayah.
The Pakistani military is trying to push the Taliban away from the heavily forested and mountainous regions of the Swat district toward the south, so the army can encircle the militants, Bhalla said.
Stratfor based its analysis on "people on the ground" and "local reporting," declining to go into detail, she said. Journalists and aid workers have been barred from the conflict zone.
The army has about 15,000 troops on the ground, she said.
"The Pakistani military is putting a lot of fight into this," she said. But she warned that even if they win this battle, the war against the Taliban would not necessarily be over.
"This is not the first offensive in Swat -- it's actually the fourth," she said. "Each time Taliban has proven capable of regrouping and returning to this area."
She cautioned that the huge refugee camps the conflict is creating could be "the perfect recruiting grounds for the Taliban to prey on."
• Pakistanis get brief window to flee fighting
• Analyst: 'Bloody urban battle' looms between Taliban, Pakistan
NEW: Taliban "digging trenches, laying mines" in disputed western city, expert says
NEW: Pakistan wants to push Taliban south so it can encircle militan More..ts, expert says
U.N.: World must launch "massive effort" to care for Pakistani refugees
Some 1.5 million people have been displaced by 10 months of fighting
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan (CNN) -- The Taliban are digging in for a "bloody urban battle" against the Pakistani army in a hotly disputed city in the western part of the country, a strategic expert warned Thursday.
A Pakistani army spokesman says the military offensive has caused many to leave their homes for camps.
"The Taliban are concentrating forces in Mingora -- digging trenches, laying mines, taking positions on rooftops," said Reva Bhalla, the director of strategic analysis at Stratfor, a private firm that describes itself as a global intelligence company.
"It is not clear if the Pakistani military is trained and even equipped to go into a situation like that," she said, adding that even the United States military "would have to think twice" about such an offensive.
She estimates there are 5,000 Taliban fighters in the area.
"The question is: Are they going to try to stand and fight, or try to regroup?" she asked.
With a government offensive against the Taliban nearly three weeks old, a spokesman for Pakistan's army said the military intends to drive the Taliban out of the contested area.
"The whole resolve of the government and the military is to once and for all finish the Taliban from the Valley of Swat," Pakistani military spokesman Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas told CNN's Reza Sayah.
The Pakistani military is trying to push the Taliban away from the heavily forested and mountainous regions of the Swat district toward the south, so the army can encircle the militants, Bhalla said.
Stratfor based its analysis on "people on the ground" and "local reporting," declining to go into detail, she said. Journalists and aid workers have been barred from the conflict zone.
The army has about 15,000 troops on the ground, she said.
"The Pakistani military is putting a lot of fight into this," she said. But she warned that even if they win this battle, the war against the Taliban would not necessarily be over.
"This is not the first offensive in Swat -- it's actually the fourth," she said. "Each time Taliban has proven capable of regrouping and returning to this area."
She cautioned that the huge refugee camps the conflict is creating could be "the perfect recruiting grounds for the Taliban to prey on."