ianstone
10-10-2010, 10:57 AM
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Senior military officials in the restive southern province of Kandahar have been expressing a confidence of late that has some daring to outline what an end-game with the Taliban might look like.
What emerges is an alternative view to the one offered by the government in Kabul, which has launched efforts to facilitate peace talks with the Taliban.
http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/archive/00900/w_Afghan-Securit_900441cl-3.jpg (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/video/challenging-summer-for-canadian-troops-in-afghanistan/article1723880/?from=1751404)Video
Challenging summer for Canadian troops in Afghanistan (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/video/challenging-summer-for-canadian-troops-in-afghanistan/article1723880/?from=1751404)
In this rendering, the insurgency ends not with a bang but a whimper.
Coalition forces in the south have been escalating the fight against the Taliban in recent months and, according to NATO commanders, the insurgency in the region is beginning to fragment.
And while that may make some of them willing to head north to negotiate with the government, others may just go home.
“My sense is there will be a number of different opportunities that will arise as the insurgency increasingly loses momentum, and indeed understands that it's lost the initiative,” said Major-General Nick Carter, who heads NATO forces in southern Afghanistan.
“You certainly see people who are putting down their weapon, picking up their shovel. ... That's happened a lot, on and off, over the last year as we put more pressure on their locality,” he said in a recent interview.
According to NATO figures, more than 21 Taliban leaders have been captured in the last month.
With Afghans growing increasingly wary of the nine-year war, President Hamid Karzai recently launched a peace council to guide negotiations with the Taliban. Composed of influential tribal elders and former warlords, the council is the public face of the Afghan government's efforts to reach a truce with the insurgents.
There have also been reports of secret talks between representatives from the government and figures associated with the Taliban.
If Taliban are showing a willingness to come forward now, many in the military believe it is because they are having trouble coping with increased troop levels and the higher tempo of NATO operations.
“The Taliban are taking loses they can't sustain,” said U.S. Colonel Dave Bellon, NATO's chief of operations for southern Afghanistan.
But military officials also acknowledge the dynamics of the insurgency may be different in the south. A long-standing distrust of Kabul has meant few Pashtun insurgents have opted to take part in the smattering of national programs designed to encourage them to lay down their weapons.
Instead, officials predict a more localized process of reintegration that will remove a critical mass of fighters from the battlefield without the fanfare of sweeping peace accords.
“I think you'll see people coming forward and being secured by a family member, or whoever else it might be, and being reintegrated into society in a way that I suspect will be typically local and typically Pashtun,” Maj.-Gen. Carter said.
“And then, I suppose, at the level above there may be something more grown-up in political terms, but I sense in our area it will be a much more local activity.”
This process may be helped along by dissension within Taliban ranks. NATO intelligence reports have indicated that mid- to lower-level commanders are balking at orders from senior leaders in Pakistan.
Unusual for this time of year, significant numbers of fighters are “deciding to leave early and go back to Pakistan,” said Col. Bellon.
“Their senior leaders in Pakistan are saying, ‘You got to get back in there.’ And they're saying no.”
NATO has sounded an optimistic note before — usually in the fall as the fighting season winds down — only to face a renewed insurgent force come spring.
But officers from across the coalition say this time is different.
“We are this close to success,” one Canadian colonel told journalists recently, narrowing the space between his thumb and index finger.
The difference, according to Col. Bellon, is that the Taliban are facing problems they have never faced before.
“They're having trouble re-supplying themselves,” he said. “They're having trouble caring for their own wounded.”
The Taliban, not surprisingly, take issue with such assessments.
In an interview posted recently on their website, the group's military commander for Kandahar, Mullah Muhammad Issa, said the recent operations in his province were having little impact.
As if to underscore that point, a series of roadside bombs in Kandahar city killed nine people and injured 30 others on Tuesday.
A day earlier, insurgents fatally shot the city's deputy mayor and a former district chief from Arghistan.
Mr. Karzai was in Kandahar district of Arghandab on Saturday promoting his government's efforts to bring peace to the war-torn country.
But the President also said locals shared the responsibility for securing their villages. “After these Afghan and NATO operations, it is your duty to protect your areas,” he said.
“You know the area very well so you can stop outsiders from coming in.”
Senior military officials in the restive southern province of Kandahar have been expressing a confidence of late that has some daring to outline what an end-game with the Taliban might look like.
What emerges is an alternative view to the one offered by the government in Kabul, which has launched efforts to facilitate peace talks with the Taliban.
http://beta.images.theglobeandmail.com/archive/00900/w_Afghan-Securit_900441cl-3.jpg (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/video/challenging-summer-for-canadian-troops-in-afghanistan/article1723880/?from=1751404)Video
Challenging summer for Canadian troops in Afghanistan (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/video/challenging-summer-for-canadian-troops-in-afghanistan/article1723880/?from=1751404)
In this rendering, the insurgency ends not with a bang but a whimper.
Coalition forces in the south have been escalating the fight against the Taliban in recent months and, according to NATO commanders, the insurgency in the region is beginning to fragment.
And while that may make some of them willing to head north to negotiate with the government, others may just go home.
“My sense is there will be a number of different opportunities that will arise as the insurgency increasingly loses momentum, and indeed understands that it's lost the initiative,” said Major-General Nick Carter, who heads NATO forces in southern Afghanistan.
“You certainly see people who are putting down their weapon, picking up their shovel. ... That's happened a lot, on and off, over the last year as we put more pressure on their locality,” he said in a recent interview.
According to NATO figures, more than 21 Taliban leaders have been captured in the last month.
With Afghans growing increasingly wary of the nine-year war, President Hamid Karzai recently launched a peace council to guide negotiations with the Taliban. Composed of influential tribal elders and former warlords, the council is the public face of the Afghan government's efforts to reach a truce with the insurgents.
There have also been reports of secret talks between representatives from the government and figures associated with the Taliban.
If Taliban are showing a willingness to come forward now, many in the military believe it is because they are having trouble coping with increased troop levels and the higher tempo of NATO operations.
“The Taliban are taking loses they can't sustain,” said U.S. Colonel Dave Bellon, NATO's chief of operations for southern Afghanistan.
But military officials also acknowledge the dynamics of the insurgency may be different in the south. A long-standing distrust of Kabul has meant few Pashtun insurgents have opted to take part in the smattering of national programs designed to encourage them to lay down their weapons.
Instead, officials predict a more localized process of reintegration that will remove a critical mass of fighters from the battlefield without the fanfare of sweeping peace accords.
“I think you'll see people coming forward and being secured by a family member, or whoever else it might be, and being reintegrated into society in a way that I suspect will be typically local and typically Pashtun,” Maj.-Gen. Carter said.
“And then, I suppose, at the level above there may be something more grown-up in political terms, but I sense in our area it will be a much more local activity.”
This process may be helped along by dissension within Taliban ranks. NATO intelligence reports have indicated that mid- to lower-level commanders are balking at orders from senior leaders in Pakistan.
Unusual for this time of year, significant numbers of fighters are “deciding to leave early and go back to Pakistan,” said Col. Bellon.
“Their senior leaders in Pakistan are saying, ‘You got to get back in there.’ And they're saying no.”
NATO has sounded an optimistic note before — usually in the fall as the fighting season winds down — only to face a renewed insurgent force come spring.
But officers from across the coalition say this time is different.
“We are this close to success,” one Canadian colonel told journalists recently, narrowing the space between his thumb and index finger.
The difference, according to Col. Bellon, is that the Taliban are facing problems they have never faced before.
“They're having trouble re-supplying themselves,” he said. “They're having trouble caring for their own wounded.”
The Taliban, not surprisingly, take issue with such assessments.
In an interview posted recently on their website, the group's military commander for Kandahar, Mullah Muhammad Issa, said the recent operations in his province were having little impact.
As if to underscore that point, a series of roadside bombs in Kandahar city killed nine people and injured 30 others on Tuesday.
A day earlier, insurgents fatally shot the city's deputy mayor and a former district chief from Arghistan.
Mr. Karzai was in Kandahar district of Arghandab on Saturday promoting his government's efforts to bring peace to the war-torn country.
But the President also said locals shared the responsibility for securing their villages. “After these Afghan and NATO operations, it is your duty to protect your areas,” he said.
“You know the area very well so you can stop outsiders from coming in.”